Poll Archive

Voting Intention

Fieldwork: February 1st 2008 - February 3rd 2008

published by The Times

Click here to download detailed results 83k

VOTING INTENTION
(Change on previous poll 4-6 January, in brackets)

Labour	31% (-2%)
Conservative	40% (+3%)
Lib Dem	17% (-2%)
Others	12% (+1%)

The ‘Others' vote is broken down between:

SNP	4%
Green	4%
Plaid Cymru	1%
UKIP	1%
BNP	1%
Other parties	1%

• This is the largest Conservative lead in any Populus/Times poll.

• Recent polls have been quite volatile. The last Guardian/ICM poll, and the January Ipsos-MORI poll, both conducted before the Hain resignation and the subsequent Derek Conway scandal, showed respectively a narrow (2%) Conservative lead and a narrow (1%) Labour lead. The last published poll was by ICM for the Sunday Telegraph - conducted on Wednesday & Thursday last week - and showed the Conservative lead widening again to 5%.

• The table below shows the average party shares in published polls in the phases of the Parliament so far.

Monthly average	Lab	Con	LD	Others
Jan-07	32%	37%	20%	11%
Feb-07	31%	38%	18%	13%
Mar-07	31%	39%	18%	12%
Apr-07	29%	37%	20%	14%
May-07	33%	37%	17%	13%
Jun-07	36%	36%	16%	12%
Jul-07	39%	33%	17%	11%
Aug-07	39%	34%	16%	11%
Sep-07	40%	33%	16%	11%
Oct-07	38%	40%	13%	9%
Nov-07	33%	40%	16%	11%
Dec-07	33%	41%	16%	10%
Jan-08	33%	39%	17%	10%

• The table below shows the average party shares in published polls in the phases of the Parliament so far.

All published polls	Lab	Con	LD
May to Dec 05	38.9%	31.8%	21.1%
Dec 05 to mid Apr 06	36.3%	36.5%	18.7%
Mid Apr 06 to mid June 07	32.3%	37.3%	18.4%
GB honeymoon	38.9%	34.0%	16.0%
October 07 ff	34.4%	40.0%	15.4%

Sleaze

Do you think that the Labour Government is more or less guilty of sleaze than the previous Conservative Government, or do you think they are both about the same?

	All	Men	Women	AB	C1	C2	DE	Lab	Con	LD	Swing
More sleazy	14% (-1%)	14% (-5%)	15% (+3%)	16% (-2%)	14% (+2%)	13% (+1%)	14% (-4%)	2% (-3%)	33% (-5%)	4% (-13%)	12% (-1%)
Less sleazy	8% (-3%)	10% (-3%)	5% (-4%)	9% (-4%)	4% (-3%)	9% (-6%)	10% (-)	20% (-3%)	2% (-4%)	6% (-10%)	6% (-3%)
About the same	73% (+6%)	73% (+10%)	73% (+2%)	71% (+8%)	78% (+6%)	72% (+4%)	70% (+4%)	75% (+6%)	63% (+7%)	88% (+27%)	78% (+7%)
Net 'more sleazy'	6% (+2%)	4% (-2%)	10% (+7%)	7% (+2%)	10% (+5%)	7% (+10%)	4% (-4%)	-18% (-)	31% (-1%)	-2% (-3%)	6% (+2%)

Thinking about the three main political parties – Labour, Conservative and Liberal Democrats – please say which, if any of them, you think of as being tainted by financial sleaze?

	All	Men	Women	AB	C1	C2	DE	Lab	Con	LD	Swing
Labour	69%	76%	62%	78%	70%	64%	60%	61%	86%	79%	73%
Conservatives	51%	55%	47%	58%	51%	53%	40%	55%	43%	65%	59%
Lib Dems	26%	28%	24%	28%	25%	26%	24%	22%	23%	30%	26%

Which of the following statements is closest to your view?

	All	Men	Women	AB	C1	C2	DE	Lab	Con	LD	Swing
MPs should not be allowed to employ members of their family on their staff, paid for out of public funds, regardless of how well qualified their family members are, or how good a job they'd do, or	38%	35%	40%	32%	32%	41%	48%	42%	28%	39%	37%
MPs should be allowed to employ members of their family on their staff, paid for out of public funds, as long as the family members are qualified for the job, do the job they're paid for - and their employment is fully disclosed	59%	62%	55%	67%	63%	53%	50%	55%	70%	59%	58%

Economic Management

If Britain's economy were to face problems in the months or years ahead, who would you most trust to deal with it in the best interests of Britain, David Cameron & the Shadow Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne, or Gordon Brown & the Chancellor of the Exchequer Alastair Darling?
[Change since last asked, on November 21st (online) shown in brackets]

	All	Men	Women	AB	C1	C2	DE	Con	Lab	LD
Brown & Darling	33%	33%	34%	35%	33%	29%	35%	8%	76%	41%
	5%	2%	9%	7%	4%	3%	7%	5%	-6%	7%
Cameron & Osborne	36%	40%	33%	41%	34%	42%	30%	84%	13%	31%
	2%	1%	4%	-4%	0%	12%	4%	1%	11%	10%
Neither/Don't know	28%	24%	21%	22%	32%	28%	31%	6%	11%	28%
	-9%	-5%	-25%	-5%	-5%	-17%	-16%	-9%	-5%	-16%
Net Brown & Darling	-3%	-7%	1%	-6%	-1%	-13%	5%	-76%	63%	10%
	3%	1%	5%	11%	4%	-9%	3%	4%	-17%	-3%

	5-7 Sep	17-Sep	5-7 Oct	21-Nov	1-3 February
Brown & Darling	61%	56%	43%	28%	33%
Cameron & Osborne	27%	18%	28%	34%	36%
Neither/Don't know	12%	26%	29%	37%	28%
Net Brown & Darling	+34%	+38%	+15%	-6%	-3%

[Change since last asked, October 5th -7th 2007 shown in brackets]

	All	Men	Women	AB	C1	C2	DE	Con	Lab	LD
Brown & Darling	33%	33%	34%	35%	33%	29%	35%	8%	76%	41%
	-10%	-13%	-6%	-13%	-12%	-10%	-4%	0%	-13%	-20%
Cameron & Osborne	36%	40%	33%	41%	34%	42%	30%	84%	13%	31%
	8%	14%	4%	10%	8%	15%	4%	5%	9%	11%
Neither/Don't know	28%	24%	21%	22%	32%	28%	31%	6%	11%	28%
	2%	-2%	-7%	3%	5%	-2%	-1%	-7%	4%	9%
Net Brown & Darling	-3%	-7%	1%	-6%	-1%	-13%	5%	-76%	63%	10%
	-18%	-27%	-10%	-23%	-20%	-25%	-8%	-5%	-22%	-31%

Populus interviewed a random sample of 1504 adults aged 18+ by telephone between 1st February 2008 and 3rd February 2008. Interviews were conducted across England and the results have been weighted to be representative of all English adults. Populus is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. For a full description of the methods we use, please click here.

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