Poll Archive

Times Poll - October 2009

Fieldwork: October 9th 2009 - October 11th 2009

published by The Times

Click here to download detailed results 123k

Change since previous Times poll (September11th-13th) shown in brackets

Labour	30% (+3%)
Conservative	40% (-1%)
Lib Dem	18% (-)
Others	12% (-2%)

The 14% for ‘Others' breaks down as:

UKIP	2%-
Green	4%-
BNP	2%
SNP	2%
Plaid Cymru	1%

	All	Public sector	Private sector
Labour	28% (-1%)	28% (+2%)	25% (-4%)
Conservative	40% (-3%)	36% (-2%)	41% (-4%)
Lib Dem	18% (-1%)	23% (-)	17% (-)
Others	13% (+4%)	13% (-)	17% (+8%)
Net Conservative lead	12% (-2%)	8% (-4%)	16% (-)

All the main political parties now agree that there will have to be significant cuts in public spending in the years ahead to bring Britain's budget deficit down to a manageable levels.

We're interested in how you think the Conservative Party and the Labour Party would each approach this task of cutting public spending if they are in power after the next election. Please say whether you think a Conservative government or a Labour government would be more likely to make these spending cuts...

(Change since October 2nd-4th shown in brackets)

	Labour	Conservative	Net Labour
With the best interests of ordinary people at heart	36% (-2%)	43% (+2%)	-7% (-4%)
In ways that protect frontline public services	41% (-1%)	40% (+3%)	+1% (-4%)
Minimising the numbers of public sector job losses	49% (+2%)	33% (+2%)	+16% (-)
Spreading the burden of cuts fairly, so that the best off bear their share	43% (-3%)	36% (-)	+7% (-3%)

		ALL			PUBLIC SECTOR			PRIVATE SECTOR
	Labour	Conservative	Net Labour	Labour	Conservative	Net Labour	Labour	Conservative	Net Labour
Minimising the numbers of public sector job losses	49%	33%	+16%	51%	32%	+19%	53%	28%	+25%
Spreading the burden of cuts fairly, to include the best off	43%	36%	+7%	49%	33%	+16%	47%	35%	+12%
In ways that protect frontline public services	41%	40%	+1%	45%	37%	+8%	42%	39%	+3%
With the best interests of ordinary people at heart	36%	43%	-7%	38%	40%	-2%	39%	41%	-2%

% saying CONSERVATIVE more likely than Labour to make spending cuts...	ALL	Public sector	Private sector	Retired
With the best interests of ordinary people at heart	43%	40%	41%	55%
In ways that protect frontline public services	40%	37%	39%	49%
Minimising the number of public sector job losses	33%	32%	28%	41%
Spreading the burden of cuts fairly so that the best off bear their share	36%	35%	35%	42%

Net Labour lead	ALL	Public sector	Private sector	Retired
With the best interests of ordinary people at heart	-7%	-2%	-2%	-27%
In ways that protect frontline public services	1%	8%	3%	-12%
Minimising the number of public sector job losses	16%	19%	25%	-1%
Spreading the burden of cuts fairly so that the best off bear their share	7%	16%	12%	-8%

With Britain's economy facing problems in the months or years ahead, who do you most trust to deal with it in the best interests of Britain?

	5-7 Sep-07	17 Sep-07	5-7 Oct-07	1-3 Feb-08	20 Feb-08	12 Mar-08	2-4 May-08	29-31 Aug-08	3-5 Oct-08	25-26 Nov-08	5-7 Dec-08	9-11 Jan-09	6-8 Mar-09	3-5 Apr-09	9-10 Jun-09	9-11 Sep-09
Brown & Darling	61%	56%	43%	33%	38%	43%	30%	30%	31%	38%	40%	38%	33%	34%	27%	28%
Cameron & Osborne	27%	18%	28%	36%	34%	40%	40%	39%	38%	35%	31%	35%	37%	37%	39%	41%
Neither/Don't know	12%	26%	29%	28%	26%	17%	26%	25%	29%	27%	30%	28%	31%	29%	34%	31%
Net Brown & Darling	+34%	+38%	+15%	-3%	+4%	+3%	-10%	-9%	-7%	+3%	+9%	+3%	-4%	-3%	-12%	-13%

	All	Public sector	Private sector
Brown & Darling	28%	23%	28%
Cameron & Osborne	41%	40%	47%
Neither/Don't know	31%	37%	25%
Brown & Darling lead	-13%	-17%	-19%

Putting aside your party preference, which of the three main party leaders do you feel would make the better Prime Minister?

Right now, to deal with Britain's economy in recession?

	Nov 7-9	Nov 25-26	Dec 5-7	Jan 9-11	Feb 6-8	Oct 9-11
Gordon Brown	52%	42%	39%	37%	32%	30%
David Cameron	32%	36%	32%	37%	41%	45%
Nick Clegg	5%	5%	6%	6%	8%	11%
Net Brown lead	20%	6%	7%	0%	-9%	-15%

To lead Britain forward after the next general election?

	Nov 7-9	Nov 25-26	Dec 5-7	Jan 9-11	Feb 6-8	Oct 9-11
Gordon Brown	35%	33%	34%	31%	28%	28%
David Cameron	42%	41%	36%	43%	45%	48%
Nick Clegg	10%	7%	7%	7%	9%	11%
Net Brown lead	-7%	-8%	-2%	-12%	-17%	-20%

Net Brown lead as best Prime Minister...	Nov 7-9	Nov 25-26	Dec 5-7	Jan 9-11	Feb 6-8	Oct 9-11
Right now, to deal with Britain's economy in recession?	20%	6%	7%	0%	-9%	-15%
To lead Britain forward after the next general election?	-7%	-8%	-2%	-12%	-17%	-20%

The next general election, for Westminster MPs, has to take place in the next year or so. Which of the following do you think is the most likely result at the next general election?

[Change since September shown in brackets]

	All	Lab	Con	Lib Dem
A Conservative landslide (a majority of over 100 in the House of Commons)	14% (-3%)	8% (-)	26% (-5%)	13% (+1%)
A Conservative victory but not with a very large majority in the House of Commons	43% (+3%)	21% (-5%)	63% (+10%)	55% (+11%)
A 'hung Parliament' where no party has an overall majority in the House of Commons but the Conservatives are the largest party	11% (-1%)	16% (+6%)	8% (-2%)	12% (-2%)
A 'hung Parliament' where no party has an overall majority in the House of Commons but Labour are the largest party	6% (-2%)	12% (-2%)	1% (-1%)	7% (-2%)
A Labour victory but not with a very large majority in the House of Commons	12% (+1%)	31% (+4%)	2% (+1%)	7% (-8%)
A Labour landslide (a majority of over 100 in the House of Commons)	4% (-2%)	6% (-8%)	0% (-1%)	2% (-1%)

	All	Lab	Con	LD
ALL CONSERVATIVE VICTORY	57% (-)	29% (-5%)	89% (+5%)	68% (+12%)
ALL LABOUR VICTORY	16% (-1%)	37% (-4%)	2% (-)	14% (-4%)
ALL HUNG PARLIAMENT	17% (-3%)	28% (+4%)	9% (-3%)	19% (-4%)

	All	Lab	Con	LD
CONSERVATIVES LARGEST PARTY	68% (+1%)	45% (+1%)	97% (+3%)	80% (+10%)
LABOUR LARGEST PARTY	22% (-3%)	49% (-6%)	3% (-1%)	16% (-11%)

Which of the following is closest to your view?

(Change since September shown in brackets)

	All	Men	Women	AB	C1	C2	DE	Lab	Con	LD
British troops should remain in Afghanistan until the Taliban are defeated and the situation there is stable, even if that takes many years	27% (-1%)	40% (+4%)	17% (-4%)	33% (+2%)	29% (-3%)	26% (-6%)	19% (+2%)	34% (-)	35% (+3%)	41% (+8%)
A timetable should be set for withdrawing British troops from Afghanistan within the next year or so & we should stick to that timetable regardless of the situation in Afghanistan at the time	32% (-8%)	26% (-7%)	37% (-9%)	36% (-9%)	31% (-11%)	33% (-2%)	26% (-9%)	31% (-8%)	38% (-5%)	29% (-19%)
British troops should be withdrawn from Afghanistan now	36% (+7%)	32% (+3%)	40% (+10%)	28% (+9%)	35% (+12%)	37% (+7%)	46% (-1%)	31% (+7%)	25% (+2%)	29% (+12%)

	July	September	October
British troops should remain in Afghanistan until the Taliban are defeated and the situation there is stable, even if that takes many years	29%	28%	27%
A timetable should be set for withdrawing British troops from Afghanistan within the next year or so and we should stick to that timetable regardless of the situation in Afghanistan at the time	33%	40%	32%
British troops should be withdrawn from Afghanistan now	34%	29%	36%

General Sir Richard Dannatt, who was until recently head of the Army, has said this week that earlier in the year he and other senior Army officers strongly advised Gordon Brown that more soldiers were needed in Afghanistan and this advice was ignored. The government denies that this happened and some people have said the General was in any case wrong to reveal confidential advice he gave to the government.

Regardless of what did or didn't happen in this particular case, do you think that governments should always deploy additional troops if the Army asks for them or should governments take other factors into account and be willing sometimes to refuse Army requests to deploy additional troops?

	All	Men	Women	AB	C1	C2	DE	Lab	Con	LD
Should always deploy extra troops if the Army asks	50%	52%	48%	36%	53%	54%	57%	44%	56%	43%
Should sometimes be willing to refuse Army troop requests	43%	43%	44%	59%	41%	40%	32%	46%	39%	52%
Net 'should always deploy troops if Army asks'	7%	9%	4%	-23%	12%	14%	25%	-2%	17%	-9%

If the army has asked for more troops to be sent to Afghanistan, as General Dannatt says, do you think the government should or should not send them?

	All	Men	Women	AB	C1	C2	DE	Lab	Con	LD
Should	64%	70%	58%	61%	63%	71%	61%	62%	76%	61%
Should not	28%	22%	34%	25%	30%	26%	31%	29%	18%	30%
Net 'should'	36%	48%	24%	36%	33%	45%	30%	33%	58%	31%

Regardless of your view about whether or not more troops should be sent to Afghanistan, do you think that General Dannatt was right or wrong to speak publicly about confidential advice he gave to Gordon Brown while he was head of the Army?

	All	Men	Women	AB	C1	C2	DE	Lab	Con	LD
Right	54%	53%	56%	50%	60%	54%	53%	37%	70%	46%
Wrong	41%	45%	38%	47%	37%	42%	39%	62%	27%	54%
Net 'Right'	13%	8%	18%	3%	23%	12%	14%	-25%	43%	-8%

It has just been announced that General Sir Richard Dannatt is going to advise the Conservative Party on defence issues and will be a Defence Minister if the Conservatives win the next election. His decision to make a party political commitment has been criticised publicly by some retired Generals and privately by some serving officers for risking politicising the military, but General Dannatt insists that his appointment was urgent because of the serious situation in Afghanistan.

Do you think that General Dannatt was right or wrong to have become involved in party politics within six weeks of retiring as head of the Army?

	All	Men	Women	AB	C1	C2	DE	Lab	Con	LD
Right	42%	45%	39%	39%	45%	43%	40%	22%	62%	29%
Wrong	48%	49%	48%	51%	48%	51%	43%	73%	31%	64%
Net 'Right'	-6%	-4%	-9%	-12%	-3%	-8%	-3%	-51%	31%	-35%

Do you think that David Cameron was right or wrong to have appointed General Dannatt as an adviser and to have offered him a place in the House of Lords as a possible minister if the Conservatives win the next election?

	All	Men	Women	AB	C1	C2	DE	Lab	Con	LD
Right	47%	49%	46%	46%	53%	50%	41%	25%	68%	45%
Wrong	42%	44%	41%	42%	43%	44%	41%	69%	26%	52%
Net 'Right'	5%	5%	5%	4%	10%	6%	0%	-44%	42%	-7%

Populus interviewed a random sample of 1,509 adults aged 18+ by telephone between 9th October 2009 and 11th October 2009. Interviews were conducted across the country and the results have been weighted to be representative of all adults.Populus is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. For a full description of the methods we use, please click here.

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