Poll Archive

The Times Poll – 19th July 2009

Fieldwork: July 17th 2009 - July 19th 2009

published by The Times

Click here to download detailed results 169k

Change since previous Times poll (June 9th-10th) shown in brackets

Labour	26% (+2%)
Conservative	38% (+2%)
Lib Dem	20% (+1%)
Others	16% (-5%)

The 16% for ‘Others' breaks down as:

UKIP	5%
Green	5%
BNP	3%
SNP	3%
Plaid Cymru	1%

I'd like to ask how optimistic or pessimistic you are about Britain's economy. Thinking about all the things that may affect the economy - such as changes in salaries and wages, the level of interest rates and tax, the rates of inflation and unemployment, and the strength of the pound – how do you think the British economy will fare over the next year a) for the country as a whole, b) for you and your family

	Sep 03	Mar 04	Nov 04	Apr 05	Nov 05	Mar 07	Sep 07	Apr 08	Jul 08	Nov 08	Jan 09	Feb 09	Mar 09	Jun 09	Jul 09
Country as a whole - Well	65%	64%	64%	77%	64%	56%	53%	39%	22%	31%	18%	20%	20%	32%	25%
Country as a whole - Badly	36%	29%	28%	19%	28%	36%	45%	59%	77%	66%	79%	77%	78%	63%	73%
Country as a Whole - Net	+29%	+35%	+36%	+58%	+36%	+20%	+8%	-20%	-55%	-35%	-61%	-57%	-58%	-31%	-48%
Me & Family - Well	65%	63%	63%	75%	63%	60%	61%	50%	32%	51%	46%	49%	47%	46%	46%
Me & Family - Badly	35%	31%	28%	19%	28%	34%	34%	47%	66%	44%	50%	48%	51%	50%	52%
Me & Family – Net	+30%	+32%	+35%	+56%	+35%	+26%	+27%	+3%	-34%	+7%	-4%	+1%	-4%	-4%	-6%

The next general election, for Westminster MPs, has to take place in the next year or so. Which of the following do you think is the most likely result at the next general election?

[Change since 27-28 May shown in brackets]

	All	Lab	Con	Lib Dem
A Conservative landslide (a majority of over 100 in the House of Commons)	14% (-)	4% (-3%)	29% (+6%)	4% (-7%)
A Conservative victory but not with a very large majority in the House of Commons	37% (-)	27% (+11%)	49% (-6%)	45% (-5%)
A 'hung Parliament' where no party has an overall majority in the House of Commons but the Conservatives are the largest party	15% (+2%)	7% (-3%)	13% (+3%)	20% (+2%)
A 'hung Parliament' where no party has an overall majority in the House of Commons but Labour are the largest party	10% (-)	17% (-3%)	2% (+1%)	11% (+4%)
A Labour victory but not with a very large majority in the House of Commons	10% (+1%)	27% (-1%)	5% (-)	9% (+2%)
A Labour landslide (a majority of over 100 in the House of Commons)	5% (-)	13% (-)	0% (-3%)	5% (+1%)

	All	Lab	Con	LD
ALL CONSERVATIVE VICTORY	51% (-)	31% (+8%)	78% (-)	49% (-12%)
ALL LABOUR VICTORY	15% (+1%)	40% (-1%)	5% (-3%)	14% (+3%)
ALL HUNG PARLIAMENT	25% (+2%)	24% (-6%)	15% (+4%)	31% (+6%)

	All	Lab	Con	LD
CONSERVATIVES LARGEST PARTY	66% (+2%)	38% (+5%)	91% (+3%)	69% (-10%)
LABOUR LARGEST PARTY	25% (+1%)	57% (-4%)	7% (-2%)	25% (+7%)

Do you think that success in the war in Afghanistan would make a terrorist attack on the UK more likely or less likely – or would it make no difference either way to the likelihood of a terrorist attack on the UK?

	All	Men	Women	AB	C1	C2	DE	Lab	Con	LD
More likely	27%	27%	26%	27%	28%	25%	26%	32%	24%	30%
Less likely	16%	19%	14%	19%	14%	15%	17%	23%	17%	15%
No difference	57%	54%	60%	54%	58%	60%	57%	46%	58%	55%
Net MORE likely	11%	8%	12%	8%	14%	10%	9%	9%	7%	15%

Which of the following is closest to your view?

	All	Men	Women	AB	C1	C2	DE	Lab	Con	LD
British troops should remain in Afghanistan until the Taliban are defeated and the situation there is stable, even if that takes many years	29%	38%	20%	39%	23%	29%	24%	38%	29%	34%
A timetable should be set for withdrawing British troops from Afghanistan within the next year or so & we should stick to that timetable regardless of the situation in Afghanistan at the time	33%	29%	36%	37%	34%	28%	29%	29%	41%	36%
British troops should be withdrawn from Afghanistan now	34%	29%	38%	18%	38%	39%	42%	29%	27%	20%

To the best of your knowledge, how well equipped are Britain's troops fighting in Afghanistan?

	All	Men	Women	AB	C1	C2	DE	Lab	Con	LD
Very well equipped	3%	4%	3%	3%	4%	2%	5%	7%	2%	3%
Quite well equipped	33%	35%	31%	37%	30%	32%	33%	47%	27%	39%
All 'Well equipped'	36%	39%	34%	40%	34%	34%	38%	54%	29%	42%
Quite badly equipped	43%	41%	44%	46%	45%	40%	40%	33%	48%	44%
Very badly equipped	21%	20%	22%	15%	21%	26%	23%	13%	22%	14%
All 'badly equipped'	64%	61%	66%	61%	66%	66%	63%	46%	70%	58%
Net 'well equipped'	-28%	-22%	-32%	-21%	-32%	-32%	-25%	8%	-41%	-16%

Do you think that British soldiers have been killed or injured in Iraq as a direct result of not being well enough equipped?

	All	Men	Women	AB	C1	C2	DE	Lab	Con	LD
Yes	67%	67%	68%	60%	70%	74%	66%	57%	76%	57%
No	25%	27%	23%	30%	24%	21%	24%	36%	18%	36%
Don't know	8%	6%	9%	10%	6%	6%	9%	8%	7%	7%
Net 'Yes'	42%	40%	45%	30%	46%	53%	42%	21%	58%	21%

Which of the three main political parties – (rotate order) Conservative, Labour or Liberal Democrat - do you think has been done the best job of responding to the abuse of the system of Parliamentary allowances by some MPs? If you think that that all have done an equally good job, or that none of them has done a good job of responding to the issue, please say so?

	All	Men	Women	AB	C1	C2	DE	Lab	Con	LD
Conservative	11%	15%	8%	11%	11%	16%	8%	6%	28%	3%
Labour	5%	4%	7%	5%	2%	7%	8%	18%	3%	3%
Liberal Democrat	9%	9%	9%	15%	11%	5%	6%	5%	9%	17%
All of them equally	20%	20%	21%	18%	18%	20%	26%	24%	23%	24%
None of them	47%	48%	47%	46%	48%	46%	49%	45%	35%	48%
Don't know	6%	4%	8%	4%	9%	6%	4%	1%	2%	5%

Government borrowing has risen significantly in recent months to fund the measures taken to prevent the collapse of banks and to address the effects of recession. All the main political parties agree that whoever wins the next election, steps will have to be taken to reduce the level of government debt.

At a time of low or no economic growth, there are two main ways in which governments can reduce debt – by increasing taxes and by reducing the amount spent on public services and the running of government departments. Bearing that in mind, which of the following general approaches to the rebalancing of the public finances would you prefer to see?

[Change since April 15th-16th, when this question was asked in a poll for the BBC Westminster Hour programme, shown in brackets]

	All	Men	Women	AB	C1	C2	DE	Lab	Con	LD
A roughly equal split between tax increases and cuts in public spending	38% (+1%)	38% (+5%)	38% (-2%)	39% (-4%)	46% (+14%)	29% (-10%)	33% (-2%)	35% (-)	47% (+9%)	48% (-1%)
More emphasis on tax increases, with fewer cuts in public spending	11% (+1%)	13% (+2%)	9% (-)	14% (+3%)	11% (-2%)	6% (-2%)	13% (+6%)	18% (+4%)	5% (+1%)	19% (+9%)
Just tax increases and no cuts in public spending	11% (-)	11% (-1%)	10% (+1%)	12% (+3%)	8% (-3%)	11% (-)	12% (-)	17% (+4%)	6% (-3%)	14% (+2%)
More emphasis on reduced public spending, with fewer tax increases	14% (-1%)	13% (-5%)	15% (+2%)	13% (-1%)	12% (-6%)	19% (+10%)	14% (-4%)	10% (-5%)	17% (-3%)	16% (+2%)
Just reductions in public spending and no tax increases	21% (-)	22% (-1%)	19% (-2%)	18% (-2%)	18% (-3%)	28% (+1%)	21% (+3%)	18% (-)	20% (-5%)	9% (-2%

	All	Men	Women	AB	C1	C2	DE	Lab	Con	LD
A roughly equal split between tax increases and cuts in public spending	38% (+1%)	38% (+5%)	38% (-2%)	39% (-4%)	46% (+14%)	29% (-10%)	33% (-2%)	35% (-)	47% (+9%)	48% (-1%)
More tax increases, fewer/no cuts in public spending	22% (+1%)	24% (+1%)	19% (+1%)	26% (+6%)	19% (-5%)	17% (-2%)	25% (+6%)	35% (+8%)	11% (-2%)	33% (+11%)
More emphasis spending cuts, fewer/no tax increases	35% (-1%)	35% (-4%)	34% (-)	31% (-3%)	30% (-9%)	47% (+11%)	35% (-1%)	28% (-5%)	37% (-8%)	25% (-)

From what you know, do you think it is now inevitable that there will be significant cuts in public spending after the next election regardless of the outcome of the election?

	All	Men	Women	AB	C1	C2	DE	Lab	Con	LD
Yes	81%	81%	80%	85%	82%	82%	74%	81%	87%	83%
No	15%	15%	15%	11%	16%	13%	21%	15%	11%	17%
Net 'Yes'	66%	66%	65%	74%	66%	69%	53%	66%	76%	66%

If there have to be cuts in public spending, which of the two main parties – Labour or Conservative - would you trust most to cut spending in ways that don't harm important public services and that minimise the negative impact on ordinary people?

	All	Men	Women	AB	C1	C2	DE	Lab	Con	LD
Conservative	38%	36%	40%	41%	42%	38%	30%	10%	81%	32%
Labour	28%	29%	28%	29%	28%	20%	36%	79%	5%	23%
Both equally	6%	4%	7%	6%	6%	5%	5%	4%	4%	8%
Neither	24%	27%	21%	22%	19%	31%	24%	7%	8%	32%
Don't know	4%	4%	5%	2%	5%	6%	4%	0%	2%	5%
Net Conservative lead over Labour	10%	7%	12%	12%	14%	18%	-6%	-69%	76%	9%

Currently it is illegal in the UK to assist a person in committing suicide. There have been a number of reported cases of people travelling to a Swiss clinic where they can legally be given drugs that will cause their painless death. Most, but not all, of those taking this course of action have been suffering from terminal illness. Do you think that, in cases where an individual is of sound mind and has made unambiguously clear that they want to die and want or need help to do so, the law in the UK should or should not be changed?

To legalise doctor-assisted suicide, similar to what is practised in Switzerland, so that a doctor could assist someone to commit suicide without facing prosecution

	All	Men	Women	AB	C1	C2	DE	Lab	Con	LD
Yes, the law should be changed	74%	73%	74%	74%	71%	80%	71%	61%	79%	73%
No, the law shouldn't be changed	23%	24%	22%	23%	27%	16%	25%	35%	18%	21%
Don't know	3%	3%	4%	3%	3%	4%	4%	4%	3%	7%
Net 'Yes'	51%	49%	52%	51%	44%	64%	46%	26%	61%	52%

	All	18-24	25-34	35-44	45-54	55-64	65+
Yes, the law should be changed	74%	64%	75%	78%	75%	77%	70%
No, the law shouldn't be changed	23%	34%	21%	16%	22%	21%	26%
Don't know	3%	2%	3%	6%	3%	2%	3%
Net 'Yes'	51%	30%	54%	62%	53%	56%	44%

	All	18-24	25-34	35-44	45-54	55-64	65+
Yes, the law should be changed	74%	64%	75%	78%	75%	77%	70%
No, the law shouldn't be changed	23%	34%	21%	16%	22%	21%	26%
Don't know	3%	2%	3%	6%	3%	2%	3%
Net 'Yes'	51%	30%	54%	62%	53%	56%	44%

	All	18-24	25-34	35-44	45-54	55-64	65+
Yes, the law should be changed	60%	49%	58%	68%	69%	62%	54%
No, the law shouldn't be changed	37%	47%	39%	28%	29%	37%	44%
Don't know	3%	4%	3%	4%	2%	1%	2%
Net 'Yes'	23%	2%	19%	40%	40%	25%	10%

To legalise non-doctor assisted suicide, that is to ensure that a friend, partner, spouse or other family member could assist someone to commit suicide without facing prosecution

	All	Men	Women	AB	C1	C2	DE	Lab	Con	LD
Yes, the law should be changed	60%	64%	57%	53%	60%	70%	60%	50%	66%	52%
No, the law shouldn't be changed	37%	34%	40%	45%	39%	26%	36%	47%	31%	47%
Don't know	3%	2%	3%	2%	2%	4%	3%	3%	3%	2%
Net 'Yes'	23%	30%	17%	8%	21%	44%	24%	3%	35%	5%

Those saying yes to either proposition in the previous question (79% of all respondents), then asked

If the law were to be changed in this way in the UK, do you think that

	All	Men	Women	AB	C1	C2	DE	Lab	Con	LD
Assisted suicide should be legalised in the UK without restriction	13%	17%	9%	10%	13%	14%	16%	14%	8%	6%
Assisted suicide should be legalised in the UK only in certain specific circumstances	85%	80%	89%	88%	85%	84%	81%	81%	91%	94%
Don't know	2%	3%	2%	1%	3%	2%	4%	5%	1%	0%
Net 'without restrictions'	-72%	-63%	-80%	-78%	-72%	-70%	-65%	-67%	-83%	-88%

	All	18-24	25-34	35-44	45-54	55-64	65+
Assisted suicide should be legalised in the UK without restriction	13%	13%	10%	10%	9%	19%	17%
Assisted suicide should be legalised in the UK only in certain specific circumstances	85%	85%	86%	88%	90%	79%	79%
Don't know	2%	2%	4%	2%	0%	1%	3%
Net 'without restrictions'	-72%	-72%	-76%	-78%	-81%	-60%	-62%

Those saying yes to either proposition in the previous question (79% of all respondents), then asked

If the law were to be changed in this way in the UK, do you think that

	All	Men	Women	AB	C1	C2	DE	Lab	Con	LD
Assisted suicide should be legalised in the UK without restriction	13%	17%	9%	10%	13%	14%	16%	14%	8%	6%
Assisted suicide should be legalised in the UK only in certain specific circumstances	85%	80%	89%	88%	85%	84%	81%	81%	91%	94%
Don't know	2%	3%	2%	1%	3%	2%	4%	5%	1%	0%
Net 'without restrictions'	-72%	-63%	-80%	-78%	-72%	-70%	-65%	-67%	-83%	-88%

	All	18-24	25-34	35-44	45-54	55-64	65+
Assisted suicide should be legalised in the UK without restriction	13%	13%	10%	10%	9%	19%	17%
Assisted suicide should be legalised in the UK only in certain specific circumstances	85%	85%	86%	88%	90%	79%	79%
Don't know	2%	2%	4%	2%	0%	1%	3%
Net 'without restrictions'	-72%	-72%	-76%	-78%	-81%	-60%	-62%

Those favouring the legalisation of assisted suicide only in certain circumstances (67% of all respondents), then asked

Do you think that assisted suicide should or should not be legalised in the UK in each of the following circumstances?

	Should be legalised	Should not be legalised	Net 'should be legalised'
People with a terminal illness	95%	4%	91%
People suffering extreme pain, even if not with a terminal illness	56%	38%	18%
People with a degenerative condition, even if not a terminal illness	65%	30%	35%
People with a severe physical disability, even if otherwise healthy	48%	48%	0%
People who simply wish to die at the same time as a long-term spouse or partner who has a terminal illness	34%	63%	-29%

Net 'should be legalised'	All	Men	Women	AB	C1	C2	DE	Lab	Con	LD
People with a terminal illness	91%	92%	89%	95%	85%	93%	90%	87%	85%	89%
People suffering extreme pain, even if not with a terminal illness	18%	15%	21%	25%	-3%	20%	35%	25%	20%	21%
People with a degenerative condition, even if not a terminal illness	35%	30%	39%	44%	40%	12%	43%	50%	30%	39%
People with a severe physical disability, even if otherwise healthy	0%	-1%	0%	12%	-8%	-10%	2%	2%	0%	7%
People who simply wish to die at the same time as a long-term spouse or partner who has a terminal illness	-29%	-24%	-33%	-20%	-33%	-53%	-10%	-29%	-23%	-28%

Net 'should be legalised'	All	18-24	25-34	35-44	45-54	55-64	65+
People with a terminal illness	91%	94%	92%	88%	92%	89%	90%
People suffering extreme pain, even if not with a terminal illness	18%	44%	3%	26%	3%	17%	23%
People with a degenerative condition, even if not a terminal illness	35%	30%	33%	42%	48%	18%	34%
People with a severe physical disability, even if otherwise healthy	0%	12%	-11%	7%	-5%	8%	-10%
People who simply wish to die at the same time as a long-term spouse or partner who has a terminal illness	-29%	-34%	-35%	-42%	-41%	-17%	-1%

How worried are you, if at all, about swine flu affecting your family?

	All	Men	Women	AB	C1	C2	DE	Children under 18	No children under 18
Very worried	16%	14%	17%	11%	13%	17%	23%	18%	14%
Slightly worried	46%	42%	50%	46%	48%	48%	42%	52%	44%
Not worried at all	38%	44%	33%	43%	40%	35%	35%	29%	42%

How confident are you that you know what the symptoms are of swine flu and that you would recognise those symptoms if you or a family member had them?

	All	Men	Women	AB	C1	C2	DE	Children under 18	No children under 18
Very confident	29%	29%	30%	35%	32%	25%	23%	35%	27%
Quite confident	52%	49%	55%	46%	54%	58%	51%	48%	54%
Not confident at all	19%	22%	15%	19%	13%	17%	26%	17%	19%

If you thought you had the symptoms of swine flu, which of the following would you do? Do you think that the government has done all that it reasonably can to prepare for the swine flu epidemic and its effects, or do you think that the government could be doing more?

	All	Men	Women	AB	C1	C2	DE	Children under 18	No children under 18
Stay at home and phone your GP	85%	80%	88%	82%	87%	83%	87%	85%	85%
Phone NHS Direct	60%	55%	65%	56%	67%	59%	57%	67%	57%
Check on the internet for information and advice	56%	55%	57%	60%	70%	53%	38%	71%	50%
Go to your GP	37%	40%	34%	33%	34%	44%	39%	36%	37%
Go to the nearest Accident & Emergency department	19%	20%	17%	13%	19%	15%	27%	21%	17%
Buy tamiflu over the internet	13%	14%	13%	9%	17%	12%	12%	15%	12%

Do you think that the government has done all that it reasonably can to prepare for the swine flu epidemic and its effects, or do you think that the government could be doing more?

	All	Men	Women	AB	C1	C2	DE	Lab	Con	LD
Has done all it reasonably can	62%	61%	63%	66%	70%	56%	55%	70%	68%	71%
Could be doing more	35%	37%	34%	32%	28%	43%	41%	29%	31%	29%
Net 'doing all it reasonably can'	27%	24%	29%	34%	42%	13%	14%	41%	37%	42%

	Children under 18	No children under 18	18-24	25-34	35-44	45-54	55-64	65+
Has done all it reasonably can	61%	63%	52%	56%	61%	69%	63%	68%
Could be doing more	38%	34%	46%	44%	38%	29%	34%	27%
Net 'doing all it reasonably can'	23%	29%	6%	12%	23%	40%	29%	41%

Populus interviewed a random sample of 1,504 adults aged 18+ by telephone between July 17th & 19th 2009. Interviews were conducted across the country and the results have been weighted to be representative of all adults. Populus is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. For a full description of the methods we use, please click here.

Contact me about
this poll