Poll Archive
Political Attitudes
Fieldwork: January 5th 2007 - January 7th 2007
published by The Times
Voting Intention
(Change on previous poll in brackets)
| Labour | 32% | (-1%) |
|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 39% | (+5%) |
| Lib Dem | 18% | (-1%) |
| Other | 11% | (-3%) |
Brown v. Cameron & Campbell
Now I'd like you to think ahead to the next election, expected in 3 or 4 years' time. Imagine that the Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown takes over from Tony Blair as Labour leader and the Conservatives are led by David Cameron and the Liberal Democrats by Ming Campbell. Which party would you vote for – or would you vote for another party or not vote at all?
[NB: These figures are past vote and turnout weighted]
| Thinking ahead to the next election | Labour led by Gordon Brown | Conservatives led by David Cameron | Lib Dems led by Ming Campbell | Another party |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 2005 | 37% | 35% | 20% | 9% |
| December 2005 | 35% | 41% | 20% | 4% |
| May 2006 | 31% | 41% | 18% | 9% |
| July 2006 | 33% | 42% | 16% | 9% |
| September 2006 | 33% | 42% | 16% | 9% |
| October 2006 | 34% | 42% | 15% | 9% |
| November 2006 | 34% | 38% | 19% | 9% |
| December 2006 | 32% | 39% | 18% | 10% |
| January 2007 | 34% | 39% | 15% | 12% |
| Conservative lead over Labour - current voting intention | Conservative lead over Labour - next election with GB as leader | Increase in Tory lead with GB | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov-05 | -8% | -2% | 6% |
| Dec-05 | -3% | 6% | 9% |
| May-06 | 8% | 10% | 2% |
| Jul-06 | 2% | 11% | 9% |
| Sep-06 | 4% | 11% | 7% |
| Oct-06 | 1% | 8% | 7% |
| Nov-06 | 3% | 4% | 1% |
| Dec-06 | 1% | 7% | 6% |
| Jan-07 | 7% | 5% | -2% |
Reid v. Cameron & Campbell
Now I'd like you to think ahead to the next election, expected in 3 or 4 years' time. Imagine that the Home Secretary John Reid takes over from Tony Blair as Labour leader and the Conservatives are led by David Cameron and the Liberal Democrats by Ming Campbell. Which party would you vote for – or would you vote for another party or not vote at all?
[Table shows comparison with September 2006, when we last asked about John Reid in this form]
| Thinking ahead to the next election | Labour | Conservatives | Lib Dems | Others | Con lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reid/Cameron/Campbell (Sep-06) | 32% | 40% | 15% | 13% | 7% |
| Reid/Cameron/Campbell (Jan-07) | 27% | 44% | 20% | 9% | 17% |
| Thinking ahead to the next election (January 2007) | Labour | Conservatives | Lib Dems | Others | Con lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brown/Cameron/Campbell | 34% | 39% | 15% | 12% | 5% |
| Reid/Cameron/Campbell | 27% | 44% | 20% | 9% | 17% |
Leader Index
How good on a leader (on a ten-point scale) is...
| All voters | Sep-03 | Oct-03 | Dec-03 | Feb-04 | Apr-04 | Aug-04 | Sep-04 | Oct-04 | Nov-04 | Jan-05 | Jan-06 | May-06 | Jul-06 | Sep-06 | Jan-07 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IDS | 4.25 | 4.17 | | ||||||||||||
| Howard | 4.73 | 4.40 | 4.90 | 4.52 | 4.44 | 4.15 | 4.54 | 4.58 | | ||||||
| Cameron | 5.28 | 5.11 | 4.98 | 5.20 | 5.11 | ||||||||||
| Blair | 5.14 | 4.90 | 5.01 | 4.92 | 5.02 | 4.90 | 4.84 | 5.31 | 4.85 | 5.07 | 5.33 | 4.72 | 4.21 | 4.63 | 4.69 |
| Kennedy | 5.04 | 5.18 | 5.00 | 4.68 | 4.87 | 5.04 | 5.05 | 4.98 | 4.87 | 4.95 | 4.69 | | |||
| Campbell | 4.70 | 4.50 | 4.47 | 4.65 |
Preference of Government
[Polls in bold were taken during the general election campaign, as part of the daily tracker are highlighted in bold]
| All voters | Feb-04 | May-04 | Sep-04 | Jan-05 | Mar-05 | Apr-05 | Apr-05 | May-05 | Jan-06 | May-06 | Sep-06 | Jan-07 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I am satisfied with the Labour Government overall | 19% | 19% | 19% | 25% | 20% | 22% | 24% | 27% | 26% | 16% | 16% | 15% |
| I am disappointed in the Labour Govt. overall, but I still prefer them to a Conservative Government. | 41% | 39% | 41% | 32% | 34% | 33% | 33% | 34% | 33% | 34% | 35% | 32% |
| I am disappointed in the Labour Govt. overall and I would rather have a Conservative Government. | 36% | 35% | 34% | 32% | 32% | 32% | 29% | 28% | 28% | 37% | 43% | 40% |
Timing Of The Next Election
Tony Blair has said that he will stand down as Prime Minister this year. With the next general election not due until 2009 or 2010, do you think the person chosen by the Labour Party to be Mr Blair's successor should
| All | Men | Women | Lab | Con | LD | AB | C1 | C2 | DE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Call a general election soon after taking over as Prime Minister to get the country's endorsement | 56% | 54% | 58% | 40% | 76% | 59% | 57% | 55% | 52% | 60% |
| Continue until 2009 or 2010 before holding a general election | 38% | 42% | 34% | 58% | 23% | 36% | 39% | 41% | 39% | 32 |
| Net 'call election soon' | 18% | 12% | 24% | -18% | 53% | 23% | 18% | 14% | 13% | 28% |
Iraq
Do you think that British troops should stay in Iraq for as long as it takes to make sure that Iraq is a stable democracy or do you think that British troops should be withdrawn from Iraq as soon as possible even if Iraq is not completely stable?
| Jul-04 | Oct-04 | Feb-06 | Jun-06 | Nov-06 | Jan-07 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stay until Iraq is stable | 42% | 49% | 38% | 32% | 35% | 31% |
| Withdraw as soon as possible | 51% | 42% | 62% | 58% | 58% | 60% |
| Neither/Refuse/Don't know | 7% | 9% | 0% | 10% | 8% | 9% |
| Net ‘Withdraw as soon as possible' | 9% | 7% | 24% | 26% | 23% | 29% |
Who do you think is most responsible for the continuing violence and instability in Iraq?
| All | Men | Women | Lab | Con | LD | AB | C1 | C2 | DE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| President George Bush | 34% | 32% | 36% | 33% | 26% | 48% | 33% | 40% | 33% | 30% |
| The Iraqi people | 22% | 24% | 20% | 22% | 25% | 17% | 26% | 21% | 17% | 24% |
| Al Qaeda | 12% | 13% | 11% | 12% | 18% | 9% | 12% | 11% | 16% | 11% |
| Saddam Hussein | 4% | 4% | 5% | 8% | 4% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 8% | 4% |
| Iran | 4% | 5% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 0% | 6% | 2% | 3% | 4% |
| Tony Blair | 3% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 5% | 1% | 5% | 5% | 3% |
| Syria | 2% | 3% | 0% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 0% |
| None of the above | 2% | 4% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 4% | 1% | 2% |
| Don't know | 15% | 11% | 20% | 12% | 11% | 14% | 13% | 12% | 16% | 22% |
Possibilities in 2007
I'm going to read you a list of things that may or may not happen this year. For each one, please tell me if you think it is likely or not likely to happen in the year 2007.
| % saying 'very likely' or 'quite likely' | All | Men | Women | Lab | Con | LD | AB | C1 | C2 | DE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mortgage rates will rise | 90% | 89% | 91% | 87% | 94% | 90% | 91% | 90% | 95% | 86% |
| Hundreds of thousands of Romanians and Bulgarians will come to Britain following the entry of these countries into the EU | 74% | 70% | 79% | 71% | 89% | 65% | 70% | 70% | 82% | 78% |
| Gordon Brown will become Prime Minister | 73% | 77% | 69% | 78% | 78% | 71% | 78% | 70% | 66% | 74% |
| Prince William will get engaged | 65% | 59% | 71% | 64% | 72% | 60% | 64% | 58% | 72% | 69% |
| Britain will suffer a major terrorist attack | 61% | 61% | 61% | 49% | 67% | 58% | 62% | 58% | 66% | 59% |
| Osama Bin Laden will be captured or killed | 30% | 26% | 33% | 41% | 28% | 23% | 27% | 26% | 31% | 36% |
| Andy Murray will win Wimbledon | 17% | 10% | 24% | 27% | 13% | 14% | 17% | 12% | 17% | 22% |
| Scientists find evidence of extraterrestrial life | 16% | 18% | 14% | 17% | 13% | 10% | 12% | 18% | 18% | 17% |
| NET LIKELY ('likely' minus 'unlikely') | All | Men | Women | Lab | Con | LD | AB | C1 | C2 | DE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mortgage rates will rise | 85% | 82% | 87% | 78% | 90% | 84% | 86% | 84% | 92% | 80% |
| Hundreds of thousands of Romanians and Bulgarians will come to Britain following the entry of these countries into the EU | 50% | 42% | 60% | 46% | 63% | 32% | 41% | 43% | 64% | 60% |
| Gordon Brown will become Prime Minister | 50% | 58% | 43% | 61% | 57% | 44% | 60% | 45% | 36% | 55% |
| Prince William will get engaged | 45% | 37% | 52% | 43% | 53% | 41% | 42% | 43% | 56% | 54% |
| Britain will suffer a major terrorist attack | 28% | 27% | 28% | 3% | 40% | 18% | 28% | 21% | 36% | 29% |
| Osama Bin Laden will be captured or killed | -34% | -42% | -28% | -12% | -40% | -51% | -41% | -43% | -37% | -16% |
| Andy Murray will win Wimbledon | -48% | -66% | -30% | -29% | -58% | -52% | -47% | -63% | -54% | -37% |
| Scientists find evidence of extraterrestrial life | -62% | -60% | -64% | -57% | -69% | -77% | -70% | -62% | -63% | -52% |
| % saying 'very likely' or 'quite likely' | SE | Midlands | North | Wales & SW | Scotland |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mortgage rates will rise | 90% | 92% | 87% | 93% | 90% |
| Hundreds of thousands of Romanians and Bulgarians will come to Britain following the entry of these countries into the EU | 69% | 78% | 76% | 78% | 70% |
| Gordon Brown will become Prime Minister | 71% | 71% | 77% | 71% | 76% |
| Prince William will get engaged | 55% | 71% | 69% | 71% | 60% |
| Britain will suffer a major terrorist attack | 59% | 63% | 58% | 67% | 58% |
| Osama Bin Laden will be captured or killed | 28% | 37% | 33% | 22% | 13% |
| Andy Murray will win Wimbledon | 15% | 20% | 19% | 11% | 20% |
| Scientists will find evidence of extraterrestrial life | 13% | 20% | 14% | 17% | 13% |
| NET LIKELY ('likely' minus 'unlikely') | All | Men | Women | Lab | Con | LD | AB | C1 | C2 | DE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mortgage rates will rise | 85% | 82% | 87% | 78% | 90% | 84% | 86% | 84% | 92% | 80% |
| Hundreds of thousands of Romanians and Bulgarians will come to Britain following the entry of these countries into the EU | 50% | 42% | 60% | 46% | 63% | 32% | 41% | 43% | 64% | 60% |
| Gordon Brown will become Prime Minister | 50% | 58% | 43% | 61% | 57% | 44% | 60% | 45% | 36% | 55% |
| Prince William will get engaged | 45% | 37% | 52% | 43% | 53% | 41% | 42% | 43% | 56% | 54% |
| Britain will suffer a major terrorist attack | 28% | 27% | 28% | 3% | 40% | 18% | 28% | 21% | 36% | 29% |
| Osama Bin Laden will be captured or killed | -34% | -42% | -28% | -12% | -40% | -51% | -41% | -43% | -37% | -16% |
| Andy Murray will win Wimbledon | -48% | -66% | -30% | -29% | -58% | -52% | -47% | -63% | -54% | -37% |
| Scientists will find evidence of extraterrestrial life | -62% | -60% | -64% | -57% | -69% | -77% | -70% | -62% | -63% | -52% |
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