Poll Archive

Political Attitudes

Fieldwork: March 2nd 2007 - March 4th 2007

published by The Times

Click here to download detailed results 135k

Voting Intention

(Change on previous poll in brackets)

Labour	30%	(-3%)
Conservative	38%	(+2%)
Lib Dem	18%	(-1%)
Other	14%	(+2%)

Brown v. Cameron & Campbell

Now I'd like you to think ahead to the next election, expected in 3 or 4 years' time. Imagine that the Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown takes over from Tony Blair as Labour leader and the Conservatives are led by David Cameron and the Liberal Democrats by Ming Campbell. Which party would you vote for – or would you vote for another party or not vote at all?

[NB: These figures are past vote and turnout weighted]

Thinking ahead to the next election	Labour led by Gordon Brown	Conservatives led by David Cameron	Lib Dems led by Ming Campbell	Another party
November 2005	37%	35%	20%	9%
December 2005	35%	41%	20%	4%
May 2006	31%	41%	18%	9%
July 2006	33%	42%	16%	9%
September 2006	33%	42%	16%	9%
October 2006	34%	42%	15%	9%
November 2006	34%	38%	19%	9%
December 2006	32%	39%	18%	10%
January 2007	34%	39%	15%	12%
February 2007	34%	35%	16%	15%
March 2007	29%	42%	18%	11%

	Conservative lead over Labour - current voting intention	Conservative lead over Labour - next election with GB as leader	Increase in Tory lead with GB
Nov-05	-8%	-2%	6%
Dec-05	-3%	6%	9%
May-06	8%	10%	2%
Jul-06	2%	11%	9%
Sep-06	4%	11%	7%
Oct-06	1%	8%	7%
Nov-06	3%	4%	1%
Dec-06	1%	7%	6%
Jan-07	7%	5%	-2%
Feb-07	3%	1%	-2%
Mar-07	8%	13%	5%

How would you vote at the next election with X as Labour leader (and Cameron as Conservative leader & Campbell as Lib Dem leader)	Brown	Miliband	Brown	Miliband
Labour	25%	20%	29%	28%
Conservative	36%	34%	42%	48%
Lib Dem	16%	12%	18%	17%
Others	9%	7%	11%	7%
Don't know/Refuse	9%	20%
Wouldn't vote	5%	8%

Tony Blair will be standing down as Labour leader in the next few months and there is a debate going on within the Labour Party and the media about what type of person the Labour Party should look for when choosing a new leader.

The Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown has long been seen as the most likely person to take over from Tony Blair and many regard him as by the best qualified and most experienced candidate. But some people are now suggesting that Labour should instead choose one of the government's rising stars – someone in their early 40s who is more identified with new concerns like the environment and less tarnished by association with unpopular decisions the government has taken over the years.

Do you think Labour would be better off going with Gordon Brown or with one of these rising stars who is younger and newer but less experienced and largely unknown?

	All	Men	Women	AB	C1	C2	DE
Gordon Brown	33%	35%	31%	33%	36%	27%	33%
Younger, newer, less experienced rising star	55%	54%	56%	53%	52%	58%	57%

	All	Labour voters	All non-Labour voters	Tory voters	Lib Dem voters	Don't knows
Gordon Brown	33%	55%	27%	24%	27%	29%
Younger, newer, less experienced rising star	%55	42%	58%	66%	66%	52%

	All	18-34	35-54	55+
Gordon Brown	33%	28%	34%	36%
Younger, newer, less experienced rising star	55%	64%	51%	51%

	SE	Midlands	North	Wales & SW	Scotland
Gordon Brown	28%	29%	34%	34%	53%
Younger, newer, less experienced rising star	57%	57%	55%	53%	41%

	England & Wales	Scotland
Gordon Brown	31%	53%
Younger, newer, less experienced rising star	56%	41%

ECONOMIC OPTIMISM (for me & my family)	Very well	Quite well	TOTAL WELL	Quite badly	Very badly	TOTAL BADLY	NET OPTIMISM
All voters	7% (-2%)	53% (-3%)	60% (-5%)	26% (+3%)	8% (+2%)	34% (+5%)	26% (-10%)
Labour voters	15% (-)	64% (-3%)	79% (-3%)	14% (-)	4% (+2%)	18% (+2%)	61% (-5%)
Conservative voters	6% (+2%)	56% (+6%)	62% (+8%)	26% (-7%)	7% (-1%)	33% (-8%)	29% (+16%)
Lib Dem voters	2% (-3%)	61% (-1%)	63% (-4%)	28% (+6%)	8% (+1%)	36% (+7%)	27% (-11%)

Net optimism: 'the country as a whole'	Sep-03	Mar-04	Nov-04	Apr 2nd 05	Apr 30th 05	Nov-05	Mar-07
All voters	29%	35%	36%	47%	58%	29%	22%
Labour voters	54%	60%	54%	61%	87%	64%	53%
Conservative voters	19%	30%	17%	38%	46%	6%	7%
Lib Dem voters	21%	46%	31%	57%	72%	26%	43%

Economy

Now I'd like to ask how optimistic or pessimistic you are about Britain's economy. Thinking about all the things that may affect the economy - such as changes in salaries and wages, the level of interest rates and tax, the rates of inflation and unemployment, and the strength of the pound – how do you think the British economy will fare over the next year for a) the country as a whole, and b) for you and your family?

[Change since November 2005 in brackets]

ECONOMIC OPTIMISM (for country as a whole)	Very well	Quite well	TOTAL WELL	Quite badly	Very badly	TOTAL badly	NET OPTIMISM
All voters	7% (-1%)	51% (-3%)	58% (-4%)	28% (+3%)	8% (-)	36% (+3%)	22% (-7%)
Labour voters	11% (-4%)	63% (-3%)	74% (-7%)	17% (+3%)	4% (+1%)	21% (+4%)	53% (-11%)
Conservative voters	5% (+3%)	46% (-2%)	51% (+1%)	37% (+7%)	7% (-7%)	44% (-)	7% (+1%)
Lib Dem voters	5% (+1%)	66% (+9%)	71% (+9%)	22% (-6%)	6% (-2%)	28% (-8%)	43% (+17%)

Miliband v. Cameron & Campbell

Now … imagine that the Environment Secretary David Miliband takes over from Tony Blair as Labour leader and the Conservatives are led by David Cameron and the Liberal Democrats by Ming Campbell…

[Table shows comparison with figure for John Reid when we asked the same question about him in January]

Thinking ahead to the next election	Labour	Conservatives	Lib Dems	Others	Con lead
Reid/Cameron/Campbell (Jan-07)	27%	44%	20%	9%	17%
Miliband/Cameron/Campbell (Mar-07)	28%	48%	17%	7%	20%

Net optimism: 'me & my family'	Sep-03	Mar-04	Nov-04	Apr 2nd 05	Apr 30th 05	Nov-05	Mar-07
All voters	30%	32%	35%	34%	56%	36%	26%
Labour voters	54%	60%	54%	56%	82%	66%	61%
Conservative voters	23%	33%	24%	29%	48%	13%	29%
Lib Dem voters	28%	33%	25%	33%	64%	38%	27%

Which party do you most trust to do each of the following?

[Change since March 2006 shown in brackets where applicable]

All voters	Labour	Conservative	Lib Dem	None of them/ Don't know	Labour lead
Get the balance right between the level of taxes and the level of public spending	25% (-6%)	29% (+2%)	19% (-5%	26% (+1%)	-4% (-8%)
Manage the economy well overall	33% (-5%)	31% (+5%)	14% (+4%)	22% (-1%)	2% (-10%)
Make sure that the taxes needed to fund public spending are raised in the fairest way possible	28% (-5%)	29% (+4%)	20% (+4%)	23% (-2%)	-1% (-9%)
Take economic decisions that are in the best long term interests of the country, rather than for short-term political gain	27% (-6%)	31% (+4%)	17% (+4%)	24% (-)	-4% (-10%)
Maintain a stable economy	34%	31%	15%	19%	3%
Put our economy in the strongest position to compete successfully with the growing economic challenge from countries like India and China	30%	36%	11%	21%	-6%

Net Labour lead	All	Men	Women	AB	C1	C2	DE
Get the balance right between the level of taxes and the level of public spending	-4%	-11%	-6%	-10%	-4%	-14%	13%
Manage the economy well overall	2%	5%	-1%	-1%	1%	-8%	17%
Make sure that the taxes needed to fund public spending are raised in the fairest way possible	-1%	5%	-6%	-7%	-4%	0%	9%
Take economic decisions that are in the best long term interests of the country, rather than for short-term political gain	-4%	0%	-8%	-9%	-4%	-7%	5%
Maintain a stable economy	3%	7%	-1%	-1%	-2%	1%	14%
Put our economy in the strongest position to compete successfully with the growing economic challenge from countries like India and China	-6%	-4%	-7%	-13%	-8%	-4%	6%

Populus interviewed a random sample of 1,509 adults aged 18+ by telephone between 2nd March 2007 and 4th March 2007. Interviews were conducted across the country and the results have been weighted to be representative of all British adults. Populus is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. For a full description of the methods we use, please click here.

Contact me about
this poll