Poll Archive
Economic Confidence Poll
Fieldwork: January 9th 2008 - January 10th 2008
published by ITV News
How optimistic or pessimistic are you about the state of the UK economy over the next twelve months?
| Total | M | F | 18-24 | 25-34 | 35-44 | 45-54 | 55-64 | 65+ | AB | C1 | C2 | DE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NET Optimistic | 35% | 40% | 30% | 34% | 39% | 30% | 36% | 31% | 40% | 33% | 38% | 33% | 35% |
| Very optimistic | 9% | 12% | 6% | 6% | 9% | 7% | 9% | 7% | 13% | 7% | 11% | 9% | 8% |
| Slightly optimistic | 26% | 29% | 24% | 27% | 30% | 22% | 27% | 25% | 27% | 26% | 27% | 24% | 27% |
| Neither | 18% | 14% | 21% | 23% | 24% | 18% | 19% | 14% | 13% | 20% | 15% | 19% | 18% |
| Slightly pessimistic | 29% | 28% | 30% | 23% | 24% | 36% | 28% | 32% | 27% | 32% | 29% | 26% | 28% |
| Very pessimistic | 18% | 18% | 19% | 20% | 14% | 17% | 18% | 22% | 20% | 15% | 18% | 23% | 19% |
| NET Pessimistic | 47% | 46% | 48% | 43% | 37% | 52% | 46% | 55% | 47% | 47% | 47% | 48% | 47% |
| NET DIFFERENCE | -12% | -6% | -18% | -9% | +2% | -22% | -10% | -24% | -7% | -14% | -9% | -15% | -12% |
| Total | North East | Yorks & Humb | East Mids | East | South East | London | South West | Wales | West Mids | North West | Scot | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NET Optimistic | 35% | 32% | 29% | 31% | 36% | 29% | 46% | 36% | 35% | 28% | 44% | 34% |
| Very optimistic | 9% | 8% | 9% | 4% | 7% | 4% | 19% | 7% | 12% | 7% | 9% | 8% |
| Slightly optimistic | 26% | 25% | 20% | 26% | 29% | 25% | 26% | 29% | 22% | 21% | 35% | 25% |
| Neither | 18% | 27% | 23% | 20% | 19% | 17% | 11% | 19% | 21% | 20% | 10% | 20% |
| Slightly pessimistic | 29% | 24% | 30% | 23% | 34% | 34% | 29% | 28% | 32% | 29% | 25% | 25% |
| Very pessimistic | 18% | 16% | 18% | 26% | 11% | 20% | 14% | 18% | 13% | 23% | 21% | 20% |
| NET Pessimistic | 47% | 40% | 48% | 49% | 45% | 54% | 43% | 45% | 44% | 52% | 46% | 46% |
| NET DIFFERENCE | -12% | -8% | -19% | -18% | -9% | -25% | +3% | -9% | -9% | -24% | -2% | -12% |
When it comes to the economic prospects of the country as a whole in 2008 more people are pessimistic than optimistic. The South East (outside London) is Britain's most downbeat region with 54% pessimistic about the country's prospects this year. London is Britain's most optimistic region.
How optimistic or pessimistic are you personally about the economic prospects for you and your family over the next twelve months?
| Total | M | F | 18-24 | 25-34 | 35-44 | 45-54 | 55-64 | 65+ | AB | C1 | C2 | DE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NET Optimistic | 52% | 57% | 47% | 44% | 59% | 52% | 54% | 51% | 48% | 58% | 50% | 56% | 43% |
| Very optimistic | 17% | 18% | 16% | 12% | 21% | 18% | 15% | 14% | 20% | 22% | 15% | 15% | 16% |
| Slightly optimistic | 35% | 38% | 32% | 32% | 38% | 35% | 39% | 37% | 29% | 36% | 35% | 42% | 27% |
| Neither | 17% | 15% | 18% | 27% | 16% | 12% | 14% | 15% | 19% | 17% | 16% | 16% | 18% |
| Slightly pessimistic | 18% | 16% | 19% | 17% | 13% | 22% | 18% | 20% | 16% | 18% | 19% | 13% | 19% |
| Very pessimistic | 14% | 12% | 16% | 13% | 12% | 14% | 14% | 14% | 17% | 7% | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| NET Pessimistic | 32% | 28% | 35% | 30% | 24% | 36% | 32% | 34% | 33% | 25% | 34% | 27% | 39% |
| NET DIFFERENCE | +20% | +29% | +12% | +14% | +35% | +16% | +22% | +17% | +15% | +33% | +16% | +29% | +4% |
| Total | North East | Yorks & Humb | East Mids | East | South East | London | South West | Wales | West Mids | North West | Scot | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NET Optimistic | 52% | 47% | 55% | 44% | 57% | 52% | 57% | 50% | 54% | 49% | 48% | 53% |
| Very optimistic | 17% | 15% | 17% | 11% | 12% | 19% | 24% | 14% | 24% | 13% | 15% | 21% |
| Slightly optimistic | 35% | 32% | 39% | 32% | 45% | 33% | 33% | 36% | 30% | 36% | 34% | 31% |
| Neither | 17% | 29% | 17% | 16% | 17% | 18% | 15% | 19% | 17% | 19% | 9% | 17% |
| Slightly pessimistic | 18% | 12% | 19% | 18% | 22% | 17% | 12% | 17% | 19% | 18% | 22% | 16% |
| Very pessimistic | 14% | 12% | 8% | 23% | 4% | 13% | 16% | 14% | 10% | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| NET Pessimistic | 32% | 25% | 28% | 41% | 26% | 30% | 29% | 31% | 29% | 33% | 42% | 30% |
| NET DIFFERENCE | +20% | +22% | +27% | +3% | +31% | +22% | +28% | +19% | +25% | +16% | +6% | +23% |
When it comes to assessing their own economic prospects people are more sanguine. On balance 52% say they are optimistic against 32% who say they are pessimistic. Men (57%), professionals (ABs: 58%) and those living in the East of England and London (57%) are the most optimistic. Those on low or no incomes (DEs: 39%) and people living in the East Midlands (41%) and the North West (42%) are the most pessimistic.
Overall, thinking about 2008 which one of these following statements comes closest to your views?
| Total | M | F | 18-24 | 25-34 | 35-44 | 45-54 | 55-64 | 65+ | AB | C1 | C2 | DE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NET Maintain existing lifestyle | 68% | 66% | 67% | 76% | 69% | 67% | 60% | 68% | 68% | 79% | 70% | 66% | 53% |
| Able to maintain existing lifestyle comfortably | 33% | 35% | 31% | 43% | 38% | 27% | 30% | 28% | 35% | 42% | 31% | 33% | 26% |
| Able to maintain existing lifestyle at a struggle | 35% | 31% | 36% | 33% | 31% | 40% | 30% | 40% | 33% | 37% | 39% | 33% | 27% |
| Cut back slightly | 23% | 25% | 22% | 15% | 22% | 26% | 26% | 25% | 24% | 15% | 22% | 27% | 32% |
| Cut back drastically | 8% | 7% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 6% | 11% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 8% | 6% | 12% |
| NET Cut back | 31% | 32% | 30% | 23% | 30% | 32% | 37% | 32% | 30% | 20% | 30% | 33% | 44% |
| NET DIFFERENCE | +37% | +34% | +37% | +53% | +39% | +35% | +23% | +36% | +38% | +59% | +40% | +33% | +9% |
| Total | North East | Yorks & Humb | East Mids | East | South East | London | South West | Wales | West Mids | North West | Scot | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NET Maintain existing lifestyle | 68% | 63% | 71% | 65% | 67% | 66% | 69% | 64% | 76% | 63% | 66% | 75% |
| Able to maintain existing lifestyle comfortably | 33% | 35% | 32% | 34% | 29% | 35% | 33% | 28% | 39% | 27% | 32% | 41% |
| Able to maintain existing lifestyle at a struggle | 35% | 28% | 39% | 31% | 38% | 31% | 36% | 36% | 37% | 36% | 34% | 34% |
| Cut back slightly | 23% | 22% | 21% | 30% | 28% | 26% | 20% | 25% | 16% | 26% | 21% | 21% |
| Cut back drastically | 8% | 10% | 5% | 4% | 5% | 8% | 10% | 9% | 7% | 10% | 12% | 4% |
| NET Cut back | 31% | 32% | 26% | 34% | 33% | 34% | 30% | 34% | 23% | 36% | 33% | 25% |
| NET DIFFERENCE | +37% | +31% | +45% | +31% | +34% | +32% | +39% | +30% | +53% | +27% | +33% | +50% |
A third of people expect to be able to maintain their existing lifestyle comfortably in 2008, another third say they will struggle to maintain that lifestyle and a further third say they will have to cut back on their spending.
What will you cut back on? (those who say they will have to cut back)
| Savings | 61% |
|---|---|
| Holidays & leisure | 57% |
| Going out | 56% |
| Consumer goods | 55% |
| Clothing | 50% |
| Motoring | 40% |
How do you plan to change the amount you have on loan or credit in 2008 (those with loan or credit)
| NET: Reduce | 39% |
|---|---|
| Reduce sharply | 17% |
| Reduce slightly | 22% |
| Maintain | 53% |
| Increase slightly | 5% |
| Increase sharply | 1% |
| NET: Increase | 6% |
| NET DIFFERENCE | +33% |
How confident are you in your ability to reduce your non-mortgage debts in 2008 (those with debts)
| NET: Confident | 81% |
|---|---|
| Very confident | 39% |
| Fairly confident | 42% |
| Not very confident | 11% |
| Not at all confident | 5% |
| My debts are likely to rise | 1% |
How confident are you in your ability to keep up your mortgage or rent payments on your home this year? (those with mortgage or rent payments)
| NET: Confident | 94% |
|---|---|
| Very confident | 66% |
| Fairly confident | 28% |
| Not very confident | 5% |
| Not at all confident | 1% |
Nearly all are confident that they will be able to keep up with their rent or their mortgage, while four out of five say they'll be able to reduce their non-mortgage debt in 2008. Two out of five say they will pay down their credit cards or loans in 2008 while a half say their balances will remain the same.
Do you believe you are at risk of redundancy or unemployment in 2008 (those in employment)
| NET: Yes | 16% |
|---|---|
| Yes, at high risk | 5% |
| Yes, at some risk | 11% |
| No significant risk | 83% |
If you are a homeowner what do you expect to happen to the value of your property in 2008? (those owning their own home)
| Expect it to increase | 27% |
|---|---|
| Expect it to remain broadly the same | 40% |
| Expect it to decrease | 31% |
The vast majority of those in work, believe that they are at little or no risk of losing their position though one in six say there is at least some risk of this. Among homeowners, two-thirds expect the value of their property to rise or remain the same but a third expect property prices to fall during 2008. Nearly a half (44%) rate the economic record of Gordon Brown as Prime Minister and his Chancellor Alistair Darling as neither good or bad. However those who come down one way or the other are more likely to rate their record to date as poor (36%) than good (20%). Men (40%) are more likely to rate their record as poor, than women (32%) Older people (55-64s: 43%, Over 65s: 50%) are also more likely to do the same. When it comes to who people would most trust to handle the economy in 2008, a third say no party, a third say Labour and a quarter say the Conservatives.
©2008 All text copyright Populus Limited