Populus Perspective
December 2009
Narrowing lead
An unmistakeable narrowing of the Conservative poll lead over Labour has fed speculation of an early election on March 25th 2010. But even the narrowest lead in the latest wave of polls - the December Populus poll for The Times put the lead at only 8% - would mean the loss of around 100 Labour MPs if replicated in a general election and the average of published polls in December (as in November) would still produce a narrow Conservative majority. Unless the lead is cut even further over the next 6-8 weeks, it would be – in ‘Yes, Minister’ terms – a ‘courageous’ decision by Gordon Brown to call an early election.The reduced lead is mainly accounted for by a rise in Labour support, from an average in published polls of 23% in May to 30% in December, rather than a drop in Conservative support, which has been within the margin of error of 40% throughout 2009, and remains there as the year ends. The proportion of former Labour voters saying they would now vote Conservative has remained fairly stable at 12%-13% (i.e. about one in 8 of those who say they voted Labour in 2005 would vote Conservative if there was an election tomorrow). The rise in Labour support is mostly caused by people who voted Labour in 2005 reverting now to saying they would do so again, having earlier in the year been inclined to switch to another party, or to being a ‘don’t know’ or a non-voter: in May fewer than half (47%) of those who voted Labour at the last election said they would do so again; now six in ten say this. Gordon Brown’s attack on David Cameron for ‘policies made on the playing fields of Eton’ may not have been fashioned as a ‘core vote strategy’, but that seems to have been its effect.
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Feet of clay?
Just over a year after the euphoria of his election victory, and barely ten months into his Presidency, Barack Obama’s popularity has succumbed to the laws of political gravity. The graph below shows every published poll gauging how well, overall, voters think the President is doing his job. From around 80% at the beginning of the year, most polls now put Mr Obama’s approval at around 50%. The trend lines suggest that he is going to start his second year as President with more people disapproving than approving of his record.
Two cheers for democracy
Two decades on from the fall of the Berlin Wall, enthusiasm for democracy is distinctly lukewarm in several East European countries, according to a recent poll by America’s Pew Research Centre.Only just over half of adults in Hungary (56%), Lithuania (55%), Russia (53%) and Bulgaria (52%) now say that they approve of the change from the Soviet system to multi-party democracy – and in Ukraine only 30% do so. In every case this represents a significant drop in approval (8% among Russians, but around 20% in Lithuania, Hungary & Bulgaria and 42% in Ukraine) since a similar Pew poll in 1991.
Poland and the Czech Republic emerge as the only Eastern European nations in which the number thinking that ‘most people are better off’ now than under communism is greater than the number thinking that ‘most people are worse off’. Nearly half of Russians, Lithuanians and Slovaks believe that most in their countries are worse off and well over half do so in Bulgaria (62%), Ukraine (62%) and Hungary (72%).
The poll also finds that fewer than two in five Lithuanians (38%), Slovaks (39%) and Russians (37%) regard freedom of speech as a ‘very important principle’.
Cuts now or cuts later?
The economic argument between Labour and the Conservatives is increasingly focused on a single question: since big spending cuts are now unavoidable in order to address the UK’s budget deficit, should these start now, or should they be postponed until economic recovery is much stronger? British voters favour the latter view by a large majority, according to a Populus poll for The Times conducted in the aftermath of last week’s Pre-Budget Report. 59% think cuts should wait until recovery is stronger, while only 36% think that the deficit is now so serious that dealing with it cannot be delayed. The margin of agreement (30%) among women (62%/32%) is twice that among men (55%/40%).Click here to see the detailed poll results
Bleak midwinter?
UK retailers are in for a tough Christmas season according to a recent Populus poll asking consumers how much money they expect to spend on Christmas presents. London shops are projecting a more optimistic picture because of a recovery in spending by tourists, but on average British consumers estimate that they will spend a total of £321 on seasonal gifts, a drop of more than 10% on a year ago, and the lowest figure in the six Decembers in which Populus has asked the question.The number of people saying they plan to spend ‘nothing’ on Christmas presents has doubled, from 4% to 8%. The predicted cut-back on presents compared with last year is concentrated among those under 55 and is highest among 18-24s. It is only among the over-65s that the estimated spend on presents is appreciably higher (+5.8%) this year than last, suggesting that grandparental obligation may trump recession as a driver of consumer behaviour.
Click here to see the detailed poll results
Iconic British brands
Cadbury, currently wrestling against the prospect of hostile takeover by US food manufacturing giant Kraft, is regarded as the most ‘iconic British brand’ of a dozen that consumers were asked about in a recent poll by Populus. Cadbury gets an average score of 7.99 out of 10 (on a scale where 10 means ‘a definitively iconic British brand’ and 1 means ‘not in any way an iconic British brand’), just ahead of M&S (7.90). The Mini ranks third (7.89), its iconic British status untainted by the fact that it is now owned and manufactured by BMW. Harrods (Egyptian-owned) is fourth, followed by Aston Martin (British-owned) and Jaguar (Indian-owned).Subscribe
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